Possible reshuffle in France may alter stance on EU Tobacco Excise Directive

The announcement of a confidence vote scheduled for 8th September poses an existential threat to the French government, potentially impacting Paris’s support for the revision of the Tobacco Excise Directive (TED). If the opposition confirms its intention to withhold its confidence, the government led by prime minister François Bayrou risks collapse, paving the way for potential institutional chaos, early elections and serious social unrest.

This scenario threatens to jeopardise progress on crucial issues such as healthcare, public finances, and European fiscal policy on tobacco. Lacking a stable parliamentary majority and experiencing unprecedented levels of unpopularity, Bayrou has decided to resort to a pre-emptive confidence vote to address what he called the country’s “imminent danger of over-indebtedness” and avoid a potentially damaging parliamentary debate on the 2026 budget law.